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Ethnic Differences in the UK
The findings related to the relatively poor, but non-zero cross-validity of GWAS betas between European and African samples throw some doubt on the SNP evidence found by Piffer in his studies of the population/country IQ and cognitive ability SNP factors (29). If the betas for the SNPs identified in European sample GWAS do not work well as predictors for Africans, they would be equally unsuitable for estimating mean genotypic cognitive ability from SNP frequencies. Thus, further research is needed to more precisely estimate the cross-racial validity of GWAS betas, especially with regards to African vs. Eurasian samples."


There results are not very informative since the studies looked at different trait associated alleles. Thus, there was an apples to oranges comparison. The African-European comparisons concerned primarily Asthma related alleles, which show low replicability across all populations. You would want to compare the effect of alleles associated with the same traits, for example height, to get a sense if associations that replicated between Asians and Europeans also did between European and Africans. (I pointed this out to Emil, but he neglected to comment on the issue.)

Regarding the alleles for cognitive ability, the association -- at least with regards to cognitive scores -- has been replicated in an East Asian sample and in a nationally representative African American one.
I said I wouldn't post any more about epigenetics in this topic, but I changed my mind.

They are attacking the entire genetic model of heritability studies and these additive SNP correlations, with epigenetics as their main proof against it. They are getting published on major scientific journals now and also being cited by potential reviewers of the work here.

Heres a correspondence.
Attack:
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1745-9125.12060/full
Defence:
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1745-9125.12059/abstract

The defence failed by the way, since they try to play off epigenetics as GxE and rGE, which it isn't.

I knew this was coming, you are lucky they don't have the silver bullet... yet.


What does it matter? Firstly, biometric modeling can incorporate epigenetics as a variance component. So pointing out that epigenetics is a possible factor does not decrease the utility of the method. In fact, it increases it. If researchers want to show the epigenetic factors account for a substantial portion of the variance in a given trait they should employ a biometric model instead of pointing to local associations.

Second, present methodologies can partition variance in a way that can exclude possible epigenetic effects. For example GCTA can not be so confounded, nor can kinship estimates of AM and dominance. Nor can estimates of share environment based on unrelated sibs reared together. Nor can estimates of measurement error. Epigenetic effects could explain some portion of unshared environment -- it would just count as another form of intrauterine effect. But so what? And it could explain some residual H^2 as H^2 - (h^2SNP + H^2D + H^2AM) but for traits like g, there is not much here. For other traits e.g., personality, that's another issue. But Hereditarians don't usually focus on these -- because there aren't large differences between the groups of interest! Indeed, given this, epigenetics could salvage some hereditarian positions, by offering an explanation for the lacks of apparent differences i.e., a masking effect.

Third, whole genome comparisons will substantially narrow the uncertainty since they will capture rare variants, which are thought by many to account for the "missing H^2kinship".

IMO, you're being silly.

(Also, as I have noted numerous times, epigenetic differences are perfectly consistent with a racialist model since, for one, early such models prior to Darwin (who adopted a Lamarckian frame) were mostly epigenetic, at least when races were conceptualized as intraspecfic divisions.)
[quote='Chuck' pid='3683' dateline='1448033860']
[quote='Jm8' pid='3681' dateline='1447780919']


"There results are not very informative since the studies looked at different trait associated alleles. Thus, there was an apples to oranges comparison. The African-European comparisons concerned primarily Asthma related alleles, which show low replicability across all populations. You would want to compare the effect of alleles associated with the same traits, for example height, to get a sense if associations that replicated between Asians and Europeans also did between European and Africans."

The study appears to claim that the alleles for those traits correlated well between Asians and Europeans but less so for Africans.

"Two reviews found substantial cross-validity for the Eurasian population"
...~100% of SNPs replicate in other European samples when accounting for statistical power, ~80% in East Asian samples but only ~10% in the African American sample (not adjusted for statistical power, which was ~60% on average). There were fairly few GWAS for AAs however, so some caution is needed in interpreting the number."
https://thewinnower.com/papers/2735-polygenic-scores-genetic-engineering-validity-of-gwas-results-across-major-racial-groups-and-the-piffer-method

"Regarding the alleles for cognitive ability, the association -- at least with regards to cognitive scores -- has been replicated in an East Asian sample and in a nationally representative African American one."

Which is the African American study. Do you have a link?
The same study I linked also seems to find:

"LOW CROSS-VALIDITY OF GWAS BETAS AND POLYGENIC SCORES FOR EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT IN AAS(African Americans:my parenthesis) "

(title of section 6)
Admin
The same study I linked also seems to find:

"LOW CROSS-VALIDITY OF GWAS BETAS AND POLYGENIC SCORES FOR EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT IN AAS(African Americans:my parenthesis) "

(title of section 6)


You realize that you are quoting my paper, right? :)
Admin
What does it matter? Firstly, biometric modeling can incorporate epigenetics as a variance component. So pointing out that epigenetics is a possible factor does not decrease the utility of the method. In fact, it increases it. If researchers want to show the epigenetic factors account for a substantial portion of the variance in a given trait they should employ a biometric model instead of pointing to local associations.

Second, present methodologies can partition variance in a way that can exclude possible epigenetic effects. For example GCTA can not be so confounded, nor can kinship estimates of AM and dominance. Nor can estimates of share environment based on unrelated sibs reared together. Nor can estimates of measurement error. Epigenetic effects could explain some portion of unshared environment -- it would just count as another form of intrauterine effect. But so what? And it could explain some residual H^2 as H^2 - (h^2SNP + H^2D + H^2AM) but for traits like g, there is not much here. For other traits e.g., personality, that's another issue. But Hereditarians don't usually focus on these -- because there aren't large differences between the groups of interest! Indeed, given this, epigenetics could salvage some hereditarian positions, by offering an explanation for the lacks of apparent differences i.e., a masking effect.

Third, whole genome comparisons will substantially narrow the uncertainty since they will capture rare variants, which are thought by many to account for the "missing H^2kinship".

IMO, you're being silly.

(Also, as I have noted numerous times, epigenetic differences are perfectly consistent with a racialist model since, for one, early such models prior to Darwin (who adopted a Lamarckian frame) were mostly epigenetic, at least when races were conceptualized as intraspecfic divisions.)


It looks like whole genome sequencing could be somewhat unnecessary as imputation seems to be fairly useful.

http://www.nature.com/ng/journal/v47/n10/full/ng.3390.html

Still, there is going to be some rare variants that can only be seen in full genome sequencing.

Full genome sequencing opens up for some new genetic possibilities. For instance, MZ twins are not actually genetically identical, but may have important de novo mutations. These de novo mutations can arise at any point during development, so one may have to sequence brain matter to see them. One can essentially do a GCTA on MZ pairs. Do the MZ pairs with more mutations between them (in their brain tissue) differ more in cognitive ability? (Controlling for age.)
Admin
The findings related to the relatively poor, but non-zero cross-validity of GWAS betas between European and African samples throw some doubt on the SNP evidence found by Piffer in his studies of the population/country IQ and cognitive ability SNP factors (29). If the betas for the SNPs identified in European sample GWAS do not work well as predictors for Africans, they would be equally unsuitable for estimating mean genotypic cognitive ability from SNP frequencies. Thus, further research is needed to more precisely estimate the cross-racial validity of GWAS betas, especially with regards to African vs. Eurasian samples."


There results are not very informative since the studies looked at different trait associated alleles. Thus, there was an apples to oranges comparison. The African-European comparisons concerned primarily Asthma related alleles, which show low replicability across all populations. You would want to compare the effect of alleles associated with the same traits, for example height, to get a sense if associations that replicated between Asians and Europeans also did between European and Africans. (I pointed this out to Emil, but he neglected to comment on the issue.)

Regarding the alleles for cognitive ability, the association -- at least with regards to cognitive scores -- has been replicated in an East Asian sample and in a nationally representative African American one.


I forgot about/didn't notice that.

Their approach to estimating cross-racial validity is silly. They use a hits-based (dichotomous thinking) approach, whereas they should correlate the betas of all the SNPs from the largest GWAS of each group (continuous approach).
The same study I linked also seems to find:

"LOW CROSS-VALIDITY OF GWAS BETAS AND POLYGENIC SCORES FOR EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT IN AAS(African Americans:my parenthesis) "

(title of section 6)


You realize that you are quoting my paper, right? :)


Yes.
Do the MZ pairs with more mutations between them (in their brain tissue) differ more in cognitive ability? (Controlling for age.)


This has been done, with negative results. "CNV concordance rates were compared between the different sources of DNA, and gene-enrichment association analyses were conducted for thought problems (TP) and attention problems (AP) using CNVs concordant within MZ pairs. he gene-enrichment analyses on concordant CNVs showed no significant associations between CNVs overlapping with genes involved in neuronal processes and TP or AP after accounting for the source of DNA."

This is another blow to the mutation-load theory of intelligence, especially after the finding that paternal age isn't related to offspring IQ.
Twin Research and Human Genetics: http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/thg.2014.86
The same study I linked also seems to find:

"LOW CROSS-VALIDITY OF GWAS BETAS AND POLYGENIC SCORES FOR EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT IN AAS(African Americans:my parenthesis) "

(title of section 6)


You realize that you are quoting my paper, right? :)


Yes.


It's unfortunate that such a statement is becoming so popular among anti-hbd folks, because in my opinion it is wrong. Differences in LD should simply reduce the observed allele frequencies differences between populations. There is no reason why these should be smaller than they appear. Correction for attenuation due to different LD should actually make the results observed by Piffer even stronger.
Edit: by observed I mean "at the sampled SNPs"..by real I meant "at the real CAUSAL variants". So correction for attenuation will increase race differences at causal variants compared to differences at the observed variants (which are in LD with the causal variants)".
Admin
Do the MZ pairs with more mutations between them (in their brain tissue) differ more in cognitive ability? (Controlling for age.)


This has been done, with negative results. "CNV concordance rates were compared between the different sources of DNA, and gene-enrichment association analyses were conducted for thought problems (TP) and attention problems (AP) using CNVs concordant within MZ pairs. he gene-enrichment analyses on concordant CNVs showed no significant associations between CNVs overlapping with genes involved in neuronal processes and TP or AP after accounting for the source of DNA."

This is another blow to the mutation-load theory of intelligence, especially after the finding that paternal age isn't related to offspring IQ.
Twin Research and Human Genetics: http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/thg.2014.86


Good find, tho not completely convincing.

By paternal age finding, my guess is that you mean the Arslan et al paper? http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0090097

Look over their analyses. They report detailed R output. See files under (3) here https://osf.io/wlrzf/wiki/home/.

Model 2 is the right one to look at IMO. In Model 3, they over-correct because they use birth weight, birth order and birth complications as controls. Paternal age is related to birth orders, and mutations are plausible related to birth weight and birth complications. Thus, controlling for these is over-correcting because it indirectly controls for the independent variable of interest. This is similar to the sociologist's fallacy.
Admin
The same study I linked also seems to find:

"LOW CROSS-VALIDITY OF GWAS BETAS AND POLYGENIC SCORES FOR EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT IN AAS(African Americans:my parenthesis) "

(title of section 6)


You realize that you are quoting my paper, right? :)


Yes.


It's unfortunate that such a statement is becoming so popular among anti-hbd folks, because in my opinion it is wrong. Differences in LD should simply reduce the observed allele frequencies differences between populations. There is no reason why these should be smaller than they appear. Correction for attenuation due to different LD should actually make the results observed by Piffer even stronger.
Edit: by observed I mean "at the sampled SNPs"..by real I meant "at the real CAUSAL variants". So correction for attenuation will increase race differences at causal variants compared to differences at the observed variants (which are in LD with the causal variants)".


It depends on which kind of error it is. If it is random error, then you are right. If it is systematic bias, then it is a problem.

However, one could investigate which direction the bias is in, I think. It should be towards the background frequency of SNPs. My guess is that is lower than the mean frequency of the cognitive ability SNPs. If so, this is downwards bias, exaggerating the results.

Can you look into it?
The same study I linked also seems to find:

"LOW CROSS-VALIDITY OF GWAS BETAS AND POLYGENIC SCORES FOR EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT IN AAS(African Americans:my parenthesis) "

(title of section 6)


You realize that you are quoting my paper, right? :)


Yes.


It's unfortunate that such a statement is becoming so popular among anti-hbd folks, because in my opinion it is wrong. Differences in LD should simply reduce the observed allele frequencies differences between populations. There is no reason why these should be smaller than they appear. Correction for attenuation due to different LD should actually make the results observed by Piffer even stronger.
Edit: by observed I mean "at the sampled SNPs"..by real I meant "at the real CAUSAL variants". So correction for attenuation will increase race differences at causal variants compared to differences at the observed variants (which are in LD with the causal variants)".


It depends on which kind of error it is. If it is random error, then you are right. If it is systematic bias, then it is a problem.

However, one could investigate which direction the bias is in, I think. It should be towards the background frequency of SNPs. My guess is that is lower than the mean frequency of the cognitive ability SNPs. If so, this is downwards bias, exaggerating the results.

Can you look into it?


Yes, and I had already thought about this ( I would not have criticized your thought if the GWAS hits had frequencies above 50%): it depends on how it deviates from the background frequency of SNPs. As a matter of fact, the average frequency of the IQ increasing alleles is lower than that of the other alleles, which has to be 50% for obvious mathematical reasons.So the systematic error works the opposite direction from what you predicted. You should edit your paper or people will keep citing that wrong argument. Look at table 1 and table 5 (the top hits actually have a much lower than 50% freq): (https://docs.google.com/document/d/1BUmH0WHAfjpmTrChX-yUB9jnh8p7kG2x8V4KSEyy5PU/edit?usp=sharing). The frequency is about 50%, slightly less so (49%). Same with top hits (table 5).
Admin
Yes, and I had already thought about this ( I would not have criticized your thought if the GWAS hits had frequencies above 50%): it depends on how it deviates from the background frequency of SNPs. As a matter of fact, the average frequency of the IQ increasing alleles is lower than that of the other alleles, which has to be 50% for obvious mathematical reasons.So the systematic error works the opposite direction from what you predicted. You should edit your paper or people will keep citing that wrong argument. Look at table 1 and table 5 (the top hits actually have a much lower than 50% freq): (https://docs.google.com/document/d/1BUmH0WHAfjpmTrChX-yUB9jnh8p7kG2x8V4KSEyy5PU/edit?usp=sharing). The frequency is about 50%, slightly less so (49%). Same with top hits (table 5).


I can't just edit papers to remove claims that were later found to be wrong. :P That is, I can, but I shouldn't.

Let them cite the paper. You can write a brief reply paper for Winnower presenting the numbers you mention here. That would work, no?
Yes, and I had already thought about this ( I would not have criticized your thought if the GWAS hits had frequencies above 50%): it depends on how it deviates from the background frequency of SNPs. As a matter of fact, the average frequency of the IQ increasing alleles is lower than that of the other alleles, which has to be 50% for obvious mathematical reasons.So the systematic error works the opposite direction from what you predicted. You should edit your paper or people will keep citing that wrong argument. Look at table 1 and table 5 (the top hits actually have a much lower than 50% freq): (https://docs.google.com/document/d/1BUmH0WHAfjpmTrChX-yUB9jnh8p7kG2x8V4KSEyy5PU/edit?usp=sharing). The frequency is about 50%, slightly less so (49%). Same with top hits (table 5).


I can't just edit papers to remove claims that were later found to be wrong. :P That is, I can, but I shouldn't.

Let them cite the paper. You can write a brief reply paper for Winnower presenting the numbers you mention here. That would work, no?


You could have changed it if you had not archived it already. Normally one waits to get some feedback before archiving on Winnower. Now critics will keep citing that paper, I am not sure how much it would help to have a reply paper.
Admin
You could have changed it if you had not archived it already. Normally one waits to get some feedback before archiving on Winnower. Now critics will keep citing that paper, I am not sure how much it would help to have a reply paper.


I haven't archived it. "Status: Open For Review" ;)

I don't think it will be a problem. If critics cite that, fine with me. After all, I get citations! ;)

In more seriousness, it would be interesting to get to the bottom of this LD issue, that's why I'm asking you to look into it in my more detail. I don't have time.
You could have changed it if you had not archived it already. Normally one waits to get some feedback before archiving on Winnower. Now critics will keep citing that paper, I am not sure how much it would help to have a reply paper.


I haven't archived it. "Status: Open For Review" ;)

I don't think it will be a problem. If critics cite that, fine with me. After all, I get citations! ;)

In more seriousness, it would be interesting to get to the bottom of this LD issue, that's why I'm asking you to look into it in my more detail. I don't have time.

Then just edit it. A paper under review is there to be changed according to feedback. I do not understand why you do not want to edit it...it is like posting papers on OP forum and not bothering with the reviews. It is not ethically right to post false statements just in order to get more citations, because you know such an argument is popular among anti-hbd folks.
The study appears to claim that the alleles for those traits correlated well between Asians and Europeans but less so for Africans.


Again, it depends on the trait. And on what one means by "replicate". In Ntzani et al. table 2 (attached) ~19/24 = 80% SNPs go in same direction for Eu and Afr and ~80/97= 82% for Eu and Asians. I would have to examine in detail why Marigorta et al., seem to find different results. For them, though, "replicate" means "go in the same direction" and "meet a p-value".

Which is the African American study. Do you have a link?


The r(SNP-IQ) was ~ the same for AfrAm and EuAm. The r(SNP-edu) was lower for AfrAm but in the same direction, which is what matters. SNPg is not necessarily a good predictor of African American edu for a number of reasons so I wouldn't make much of the discrepancy.
Admin
The study appears to claim that the alleles for those traits correlated well between Asians and Europeans but less so for Africans.


Again, it depends on the trait. And on what one means by "replicate". In Ntzani et al. table 2 (attached) ~19/24 = 80% SNPs go in same direction for Eu and Afr and ~80/97= 82% for Eu and Asians. I would have to examine in detail why Marigorta et al., seem to find different results. For them, though, "replicate" means "go in the same direction" and "meet a p-value".

Which is the African American study. Do you have a link?


The r(SNP-IQ) was ~ the same for AfrAm and EuAm. The r(SNP-edu) was lower for AfrAm but in the same direction, which is what matters. SNPg is not necessarily a good predictor of African American edu for a number of reasons so I wouldn't make much of the discrepancy.


Yes, they mean 'replicate' as in obtain p<alpha and same direction.[1] This dichotomous reasoning is not good. However, they try to correct for it by correcting for power.

In my opinion this is what one wants to do if one really wants to know:

* Obtain two samples (or meta-samples) for Europeans and African Americans (or better, Africans).

* Because the African American sample is much smaller, sample random subsamples from the European samples that has the same size as the African American sample. Perform GWAS on them and the remaining sample much larger European sample. Correlate the GWAS betas from the small Euro samples with that in the large sample. Repeat the sampling for more precision.

* Calculate the mean SNP correlation for the small Euro subsamples with the larger samples. If differential LD is not a problem, then the SNP correlate for the African American sample should be the same as those from the European subsamples. Use the distribution of SNP correlations to add confidence intervals to the estimates.

The data to do this are not presently available to me, otherwise I would have done the above to find the actual cross-racial agreement.


1. It is not a good definition, but it is common. Instead they should use replicate as in obtained a result that falls within the CI of the original study. If they use 95%CI (almost always), this should happen 95% of the time IF there was no p-hacking, publication bias etc.
Piffer seems to have reanalyzed his data and calculated somewhat higher scores for Africans in both height and iq (if my reading is right). How significant the difference is between corrected and uncorrected iq projections, I don't know.

"I computed two polygenic scores (mean population frequencies): ancestral and derived. Then I created a composite score by averaging them. This gives equal weight to ancestral and derived alleles (Piffer, 2015b).The end result is that populations with higher baseline frequencies of ancestral alleles (such as Africans) obtain a higher score after this correction, because more weight is given to ancestral alleles."

"We can see that the ranking of corrected polygenic scores for height and IQ gives higher scores to Africans compared to the uncorrected scores..."

https://topseudoscience.wordpress.com

"Derived alleles,corrected polygenic scores and height"