Immigrant crime in Germany 2012-2015

Open Quantitative Sociology & Political Science , Feb. 10, 2017, ISSN: 2446-3868


Number of suspects per capita were estimated for immigrants in Germany grouped by citizenship (n=83). These were correlated with national IQs (r=-.53) and Islam prevalence in the home countries (r=.49). Multivariate analyses revealed that the mean age and sex distribution of the groups in Germany were confounds. The German data lacked age and sex information for the crime data and so it was not possible to adjust for age and sex using subgroup analyses. For this reason, an alternative adjustment method was developed. This method was tested on the detailed Danish data which does have the necessary information to carry out subgroup analyses. The new method was found to give highly congruent results with the subgrouping method. The German crime data were then adjusted for age and sex using the developed method and the resulting values were analyzed with respect to the predictors. They were moderately to strongly correlated with national IQs (.46) and Islam prevalence in the home country (.35). Combining national IQ, Islam% and distance to Germany resulted in a model with a cross-validated r2 of 20%, equivalent to a correlation of .45. If two strong outliers were removed, this rose to 25%, equivalent to a correlation of .50.
Notes for this paper

2019, August 26. An error was found in the Muslim% estimate for Yugoslavia. This only affected the Danish results since German data did not cover this country. The values have been updated, which made the correlation with Muslim% and crime in Denmark a bit stronger.