Here's a study I'm working on. Just a quick simple one since I have a lot of analyses done and is pressed for time.
https://osf.io/69pcd/files/
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Emil,
I would like to see an overview of the crime data, i.e., the various immigrant groups in the Netherlands; their population sizes (as a percentage of the Dutch population); and their crime rates. Also, do the same patterns of criminality hold true for different categories of crime? For instance, do we see the same ethnic pattern for personal violence as we do for fraud? Do certain ethnic groups specialize in certain categories of crime?
Van San and Bovenberk (2013) argue that West Indian and Moroccan men specialize in "lover boy" criminality, i.e., seduction of girls as a means of recruiting prostitutes (called "grooming" in the U.K.). Is this true?
Reference
Van San, M. and F. Bovenkerk. (2013). Secret seducers. True tale of pimps in the red light district of Amsterdam, Crime, Law and Social Change, 60, 67-80.
http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10611-013-9436-z
I would like to see an overview of the crime data, i.e., the various immigrant groups in the Netherlands; their population sizes (as a percentage of the Dutch population); and their crime rates. Also, do the same patterns of criminality hold true for different categories of crime? For instance, do we see the same ethnic pattern for personal violence as we do for fraud? Do certain ethnic groups specialize in certain categories of crime?
Van San and Bovenberk (2013) argue that West Indian and Moroccan men specialize in "lover boy" criminality, i.e., seduction of girls as a means of recruiting prostitutes (called "grooming" in the U.K.). Is this true?
Reference
Van San, M. and F. Bovenkerk. (2013). Secret seducers. True tale of pimps in the red light district of Amsterdam, Crime, Law and Social Change, 60, 67-80.
http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10611-013-9436-z
Peter,
You can download the report in the OSF repository. There are population sizes on page 115. Table 2.18 on page 133 has a break-down by type of crime ("Percentages verdachten in 2002 naar herkomstgroepering, eerste en tweede generatie en aard delict", Percentages suspects in 2002 by country of origin, first and second generation and nature of offense [Google Translate])
However, note that statistically it is not easy to answer these questions because the samples become too small. In the Danish, Norwegian and Finnish data, violent crime was more predictable by IQ than property crime, so this may be a true finding (unlikely to happen by chance in three different countries).
Note that my Dutch is not very good. I can usually get the gist of it, but for details I have to rely on others (my Dutch colleague or Google Translate)
Another thing one can do, is compare absolute levels instead of predictability. In Denmark, it is known that second generation non-western immigrants are much more criminal than the first generation. Looking at Table 2.12 on page 127, one can confirm that this is the case for some countries: Morocco 3.2 to 7.0, Turkey 2.0 to 4.7 Cape Verde 3.3 to 6.3. It wasn't the case for Suriname tho 3.7 to 3.2 or Netherlands Antilles 6.4 to 2.6.
For some western countries, it also increases rapidly and for many it stays about the same. For these countries, I suspect sampling error is very large due to small samples. For example, look at Canada which goes from .4 to 1.9 (almost +400%).
If we had more recent data, we could average them to get more trustworthy results. When I analyzed Danish data, I averaged crime data over the last 10 years. These Dutch data are from 2002, and cover only that year, so for statistical reasons, one would expect lower correlations because there is more noise.
---
Edited, my above comments seems to be wrong. If one examines the age-controlled column, there is no increase in crime in the second generation as found in Denmark. That's interesting.
I'm working on a new draft that will include some generational analyses, as well as the raw data for researchers to examine without consulting the Dutch report.
You can download the report in the OSF repository. There are population sizes on page 115. Table 2.18 on page 133 has a break-down by type of crime ("Percentages verdachten in 2002 naar herkomstgroepering, eerste en tweede generatie en aard delict", Percentages suspects in 2002 by country of origin, first and second generation and nature of offense [Google Translate])
However, note that statistically it is not easy to answer these questions because the samples become too small. In the Danish, Norwegian and Finnish data, violent crime was more predictable by IQ than property crime, so this may be a true finding (unlikely to happen by chance in three different countries).
Note that my Dutch is not very good. I can usually get the gist of it, but for details I have to rely on others (my Dutch colleague or Google Translate)
Another thing one can do, is compare absolute levels instead of predictability. In Denmark, it is known that second generation non-western immigrants are much more criminal than the first generation. Looking at Table 2.12 on page 127, one can confirm that this is the case for some countries: Morocco 3.2 to 7.0, Turkey 2.0 to 4.7 Cape Verde 3.3 to 6.3. It wasn't the case for Suriname tho 3.7 to 3.2 or Netherlands Antilles 6.4 to 2.6.
For some western countries, it also increases rapidly and for many it stays about the same. For these countries, I suspect sampling error is very large due to small samples. For example, look at Canada which goes from .4 to 1.9 (almost +400%).
If we had more recent data, we could average them to get more trustworthy results. When I analyzed Danish data, I averaged crime data over the last 10 years. These Dutch data are from 2002, and cover only that year, so for statistical reasons, one would expect lower correlations because there is more noise.
---
Edited, my above comments seems to be wrong. If one examines the age-controlled column, there is no increase in crime in the second generation as found in Denmark. That's interesting.
I'm working on a new draft that will include some generational analyses, as well as the raw data for researchers to examine without consulting the Dutch report.
Here's the new draft. It has some more analyses as well as a lot of the raw data.
https://osf.io/x74ys/
https://osf.io/x74ys/
Emil,
A few points:
1. You should replace "USSR" in the table with "former USSR." For the same reason, "China" and "Hong Kong" should be collapsed into a single category. I suspect many immigrants from Hong Kong tell census-takers that they are from China.
2. If a Dutch citizen has a Surinamese father and a Dutch mother, would that person be classified as 2nd generation Surinamese? If so, the generational effect (i.e., looser cultural restraints on genetic predispositions) is being countered by this admixture effect.
3. I think Turkish immigrants are "special" because they are more likely to marry among themselves. The admixture effect is thus weaker.
A few points:
1. You should replace "USSR" in the table with "former USSR." For the same reason, "China" and "Hong Kong" should be collapsed into a single category. I suspect many immigrants from Hong Kong tell census-takers that they are from China.
2. If a Dutch citizen has a Surinamese father and a Dutch mother, would that person be classified as 2nd generation Surinamese? If so, the generational effect (i.e., looser cultural restraints on genetic predispositions) is being countered by this admixture effect.
3. I think Turkish immigrants are "special" because they are more likely to marry among themselves. The admixture effect is thus weaker.
1. You should replace "USSR" in the table with "former USSR." For the same reason, "China" and "Hong Kong" should be collapsed into a single category. I suspect many immigrants from Hong Kong tell census-takers that they are from China.
The chinese people in HK are somewhat different than the chinese living in China. I don't know exactly the reason; perhaps people are poorer and less educated in China, or, as I have heard many times, it's due to (mostly asian) immigrants. In China, distrust among peers is not that uncommon, especially in some portions of the country. I'm not saying it's common, but merely that the level of distrust is probably higher than what people can believe.
If it's about IQ, you can collapse HK and China, but if it's about attitude and criminality, I guess there might be some differences between HK and China, although I don't think it will be too large to become a problem.
HK and China are treated as different by the source, so I simply follow their lead.
I will change the "USSR" to "Former USSR" in the next revision.
I will change the "USSR" to "Former USSR" in the next revision.
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