[ODP] And the next president of the United States...
2017-Jun-10, 03:38:42, (This post was last modified: 2017-Jun-10, 03:42:36 by bpesta22.)
#1
[ODP] And the next president of the United States...
Journal:

Open Differential Psychology

Authors:
Bryan J. Pesta

Title:
And the Next President of the United States is: Predicted by Race-adjusted State IQ and Well-being


Abstract:
I report U.S. state-level relationships between measures of IQ, race, well-being (e.g., income, health), and the results of the 2016 U.S. presidential election. Based on prior research (Pesta & McDaniel, 2014), I predicted that IQ and race would be relatively unrelated to election results in bivariate analysis. Instead, a mutual suppression effect was expected, such that IQ would more strongly predict election outcomes when controlling for race, and vice versa. The predicted pattern appeared; so too did mutual suppression effects between racial composition and most but not all measures of state well-being (i.e., religiosity, crime, education, health, and income). The suppression patterns consistently revealed that after adjusting for state racial composition, blue states were smarter and more prosperous than red states. I conclude that conservatism is inversely co-linear with IQ.


Length:

~5465 words, ~26 pages.

I thought this paper was accepted at Intelligence, but it was rejected after the second revise and resubmit. If appropriate, I'm willing to share feedback from prior reviewers. At any rate, please consider this for publication here.

Sincerely,

Bryan


Attached Files
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2017-Jun-12, 22:27:20, (This post was last modified: 2017-Jun-12, 22:27:52 by Emil.)
#2
RE: [ODP] And the next president of the United States...
Hi Bryan,

I recall this paper. Note that the result of this paper does not hold when one analyses counties (n=3100), so I would recommend rewriting this to be more weakly worded. Otherwise, it would get immediately disproved by the county paper.

Aside from that, I'll read your paper and get back to you with my thoughts.
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2017-Jun-17, 15:59:51,
#3
RE: [ODP] And the next president of the United States...
(2017-Jun-12, 22:27:20)Emil Wrote: Hi Bryan,

I recall this paper. Note that the result of this paper does not hold when one analyses counties (n=3100), so I would recommend rewriting this to be more weakly worded. Otherwise, it would get immediately disproved by the county paper.

Aside from that, I'll read your paper and get back to you with my thoughts.

Hi Emil,

Thanks for the comment. This wasn't something prior reviewers brought up, but I had thought about how "reliable" my results were, and therefore how strongly or weakly I could discuss them.

It occurred to me that I'm not trying to estimate population values from some sample. I have the population. There are no more cases to add, and so this study is completely descriptive versus inferential. In fact, I'm not sure my use of significance testing and p-values is even appropriate (I included them as interpretational aids in that these are what journal readers expect to see).

County-level analysis producing different results is interesting, but it does not invalidate the results I found when using U.S. states as the unit of analysis. In other words, the numbers are the numbers. The population parameters I reported are what they are. A remaining puzzle, then, is why results differ across units of analysis?

I could be wrong about this, and am interested in what others here think.

Bryan
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