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[OQSPS] Immigrant crime in Germany 2012-2015


Quote:1. Typo in Section 2.4: 

"Second, because the population data only includes persons officially living in Germany while the crime data includes persons not living in Germany."

Delete "because".

2. Typo in Section 5.4:  

"As can be seen, the correlations were strongly published towards 1."

Presumably you mean "strongly pushed"?

3. Typo in Section 7:

"To some extend, the differences in crime rates"

Change to "some extent".

All typos were fixed. Pesky extend/extent, just like advise/advice.

Quote: 4. Clearly, Georgia and Algeria are influential data points, having much higher crime rates than the other nationalities. I would be interested to know what happens to the correlations with national IQ and percentage Muslim when excluding these two data points––including what happens to the correlations with the age-sex adjusted crime rates. Additionally, what happens when you utilise log of (1 + crime rate) instead?

I will attempt to do this. However, the Danish Statistics agency have just updated their website and deleted the crime data table! They introduced several new tables that do not have the same age data as I used before (far less detailed thus introducing more age bias and not being compatible with my analysis code!). I have emailed them about this urgent problem. Normally they leave an archive version of the table, but apparently forgot this time. Very bad because it means that this research is not reproducible. I cannot even run the old analyses again because I did not save a local copy of the data (my mistake).

If they cannot be persuaded to add an archive of the table, I will request a copy of the old data so that we can keep the data open to reanalysis (by us or others).

Quote: 5. Consider adding horizontal lines at the top and bottom of each table.

Formatting is something we do as the last step.


I will try to address the crime profile idea at a later point. Right now my R analysis code does not work because the half the Danish data are missing, the code for Germany is intertwined with that for the Danish.

Quote: Style:

Your paper is very data focused and has a very clear writing style. Personally I would have enjoyed
it, if, in addition to the analysis of data, your paper would have contained more theory. But you
mentioned in an earlier discussion that you prefer to write your papers data-focused and so this
probably is just a matter of personal taste.

I have added a paragraph in the discussion with background theory.

Quote:IQ & Muslim %age:

“IQ remains a strong predictor in multivariate analysis, while Muslim % does not.”
This is a very interesting statement. In recent years Sarrazin usually stated, that Islam is responsible
for the integration problems of many immigrants. Your analysis shows that in the case of crime,
national IQ is the more robust predictor.

Due to the limited number of countries (n=83) and somewhat questionable data quality (citizenship data), I advise against drawing strong conclusions based on a single dataset. Rather, it is best to view the overall results of multiple studies. The Nordic countries produced large effect sizes for Muslim%, while e.g. the old Dutch data did not. As mentioned in the Dutch paper, this seems to be mostly due to highly crime prone immigrants from a non-Muslim country, i.e. Suriname (past member of the kingdom of Netherlands and therefore had easy immigration access).

The countries in the included sample matters quite a lot for the results I think. Unfortunately, the datasets are limited by the available data which means that they will not in general be the same across countries. This introduces a kind of weird non-random sampling variance between the studies. A future review/meta-analysis/integrative analysis will have to examine this pesky issue. It is outside the scope of the present paper, which is already long.


I slightly edited various parts, including adding the sample size to the abstract (should always be there!). Files are updated.
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