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[OQSPS] Immigrant crime in Germany 2012-2015

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The crime rate of Turkey:

„The crime rate of Turkey (1.87) is not particularly high...“
„Turks, the largest immigration population in Germany (1.5 million in these data) had an adjusted
crime rate of 1.30)“

Not just overall crime rates, but also crime profiles vary from country to country. E.g. there are
about 1.5 million people with Turkish citizenship living within the German borders, but in the case
of murder roughly 8% of the suspects are Turks. There are roughly twice as many people with
Turkish roots living in Germany (3 million). So if the suspect rate for the other 1.5 million people
would be of similar size, then about 16% of the suspects for murder would be members of an ethnic
group that represents just about 3.6% of the population who lives within the German borders.
(Another example: For the years 2012-2014 7.6 - 8.5% of suspects who were accused of sexual
assault and rape were Turkish citizens.)

So in certain cases it could be interesting to take a deeper look at the data and to supplement the
“overall crime rate” with a “specific crime rate”. It could be, that there is an highly increased risk
for members of certain ethnic groups (e.g. Turks) to be involved in a certain set of severe crimes,
but that these risk values flatten out in an overall crime rate. So perhaps Sarrazin's claim that “20%
of crime in Berlin is committed by a group of about 1000 Turkish and Arab youths” is related to a
specific set of crimes but not to an overall crime rate.


Style:

Your paper is very data focused and has a very clear writing style. Personally I would have enjoyed
it, if, in addition to the analysis of data, your paper would have contained more theory. But you
mentioned in an earlier discussion that you prefer to write your papers data-focused and so this
probably is just a matter of personal taste.


IQ & Muslim %age:

“IQ remains a strong predictor in multivariate analysis, while Muslim % does not.”
This is a very interesting statement. In recent years Sarrazin usually stated, that Islam is responsible
for the integration problems of many immigrants. Your analysis shows that in the case of crime,
national IQ is the more robust predictor.
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Messages In This Thread
[OQSPS] Immigrant crime in Germany 2012-2015 - by Emil - 2016-Nov-26, 23:55:06
RE: [OQSPS] Immigrant crime in Germany 2012-2015 - by Emil - 2016-Nov-30, 22:49:07
RE: [OQSPS] Immigrant crime in Germany 2012-2015 - by NoahCarl - 2016-Dec-21, 23:30:46
RE: [OQSPS] Immigrant crime in Germany 2012-2015 - by Emil - 2016-Dec-22, 01:25:58
RE: [OQSPS] Immigrant crime in Germany 2012-2015 - by Erwin Schmidt - 2017-Jan-04, 00:23:13
Revision #1 - by Emil - 2017-Jan-09, 01:32:23
RE: [OQSPS] Immigrant crime in Germany 2012-2015 - by Emil - 2017-Jan-15, 02:06:46
RE: [OQSPS] Immigrant crime in Germany 2012-2015 - by Emil - 2017-Jan-26, 18:25:00
RE: [OQSPS] Immigrant crime in Germany 2012-2015 - by NoahCarl - 2017-Jan-26, 20:07:12
RE: [OQSPS] Immigrant crime in Germany 2012-2015 - by Erwin Schmidt - 2017-Jan-26, 23:31:52
RE: [OQSPS] Immigrant crime in Germany 2012-2015 - by Gmeisenberg - 2017-Feb-11, 13:39:05
RE: [OQSPS] Immigrant crime in Germany 2012-2015 - by Emil - 2017-Feb-11, 13:48:14
 
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