[OQSPS] Does sub-European genomic ancestry predict outcomes for US states?
2016-Jul-27, 00:12:57,
#1
[OQSPS] Does sub-European genomic ancestry predict outcomes for US states?
Title:
Does sub-European genomic ancestry predict outcomes for US states?

Authors:
Emil O. W. Kirkegaard

Abstract:
Estimates of sub-European ancestry among European Americans by US state were obtained from a recent study of customers of the personal genomics company 23andme (N=148,789). The ancestry estimates were used to attempt to predict cognitive ability and socioeconomic performance across US states (N=50). However, results indicated that they had no reliable predictive validity.

Keywords:
ancestry, admixture, European, White, United States, general socioeconomic factor, S-factor, NAEP, cognitive ability, intelligence, 23andme, LASSO regression

Files:
https://osf.io/3nghx/
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2016-Jul-28, 20:34:28,
#2
RE: [OQSPS] Does sub-European genomic ancestry predict outcomes for US states?
A well-done, simple analysis of the relationship between sub-European genomic ancestry and social outcomes. Before approving the submission for publication, please address the following points:

1. It is not exactly clear whether the estimates presented in Tables 1 and 2 are from one multivariate model or multiple bivariate models. I assume the former?

2. It is not clear how one interprets the estimates presented in Tables 1 and 2. Are the dependent variables standardised and the independent variables unstandardised (i.e., given in percentage point units)?

3. If "yes" to the above question, consider providing standardised betas as well.

4. Unless I am mistaken, some sub-European ancestries are more closely related than others (e.g., Italian and Iberian are more closely related than Italian and Finnish). Might it therefore be worth combining closely-related ancestries in an attempt to achieve greater predictive power? For example, rather than just estimating the association between percentage Iberian and cognitive ability, consider also estimating the association between (say) percentage Southern European and cognitive ability.
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2016-Jul-29, 16:33:21, (This post was last modified: 2016-Jul-29, 16:33:51 by Emil.)
#3
RE: [OQSPS] Does sub-European genomic ancestry predict outcomes for US states?
Thanks for reviewing.

(2016-Jul-28, 20:34:28)NoahCarl Wrote: A well-done, simple analysis of the relationship between sub-European genomic ancestry and social outcomes. Before approving the submission for publication, please address the following points:

1. It is not exactly clear whether the estimates presented in Tables 1 and 2 are from one multivariate model or multiple bivariate models. I assume the former?

It is the former. I have rephrased the text in (3) to be:

The data were analyzed using multiple regression as done in the previous studies (Fuerst & Kirkegaard, 2016a, 2016b; Kirkegaard & Fuerst, 2016).

This should make it clear that it is one model.

Quote:2. It is not clear how one interprets the estimates presented in Tables 1 and 2. Are the dependent variables standardised and the independent variables unstandardised (i.e., given in percentage point units)?

3. If "yes" to the above question, consider providing standardised betas as well.

These are standardized betas. I have changed the caption to be:

Table 1: OLS regression standardized betas for cognitive ability among European American US states. N=50. R2 = .31. Cross-validated R2 = -3.16.1 CI = 95% analytic confidence intervals.

Quote:4. Unless I am mistaken, some sub-European ancestries are more closely related than others (e.g., Italian and Iberian are more closely related than Italian and Finnish). Might it therefore be worth combining closely-related ancestries in an attempt to achieve greater predictive power? For example, rather than just estimating the association between percentage Iberian and cognitive ability, consider also estimating the association between (say) percentage Southern European and cognitive ability.

One could do this in an attempt to boost power. (Every addition of a new predictor in general increases the standard error of the already included predictors. The more correlated they are, the larger the effect.)

The question is how to add them up. Perhaps:

Southern non-Eastern Europe = Iberian + Sardinian + Italian.
Nordic = Scandinavian + Finnish.

Then I reran the models. Same results. Added a new subsection about this.

---

Updated files on OSF. https://osf.io/3nghx/files/
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2016-Jul-29, 17:13:14,
#4
RE: [OQSPS] Does sub-European genomic ancestry predict outcomes for US states?
At the moment I am satisfied, and therefore approve the paper for publication.
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2016-Aug-02, 10:59:38,
#5
RE: [OQSPS] Does sub-European genomic ancestry predict outcomes for US states?
(2016-Jul-29, 16:33:21)Emil Wrote: Southern non-Eastern Europe = Iberian + Sardinian + Italian.
Nordic = Scandinavian + Finnish.

Then I reran the models. Same results. Added a new subsection about this.

---

Sardinia is a genetic outlier. You cannot group it with other Southern European populations. Besides, it's more similar to Middle Eastern ones.
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2016-Aug-02, 13:59:36, (This post was last modified: 2016-Aug-02, 14:01:53 by Emil.)
#6
RE: [OQSPS] Does sub-European genomic ancestry predict outcomes for US states?
Davide is right.

http://www.nature.com/ncomms/journal/v3/...s1701.html

   

Instead I formed the Southern group based on just Iberian and Italian, but this made no difference to the results. Still no detectable validity of ancestries.

I have updated the paper to reflect these small changes + some other minor edits.
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2016-Aug-03, 17:41:41,
#7
RE: [OQSPS] Does sub-European genomic ancestry predict outcomes for US states?
I asked AJ Figueredo if he has time to be an external reviewer for this paper. AFJ previously commented on a similar paper that was a target article in Mankind Quarterly.
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2016-Sep-04, 04:50:07,
#8
RE: [OQSPS] Does sub-European genomic ancestry predict outcomes for US states?
I have asked Meisenberg to review this paper because AJ was not replying.
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2016-Sep-04, 05:23:22,
#9
RE: [OQSPS] Does sub-European genom
The paper is completely a-theoretical (which I'm ok with, but many out there seem not). Why bother studying whether sub-European ancestry predicts U.S. state IQ? What were you expecting to find / what motivated the analyses beyond having the data?
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2016-Sep-04, 06:13:43,
#10
RE: [OQSPS] Does sub-European genomic ancestry predict outcomes for US states?
No particular hypothesis were proposed aside from that based on known group means in cognitive ability. This is a weak prediction because immigrant selection affects the mean cognitive ability level of the immigrants who enter the country. Still, it was worth checking out because the data was available and it was a known limitation of our larger earlier admixture analyses. Would you like me to add a few words about this in the introduction?
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